Best, worst, and most likely scenarios for Tennessee’s 2015 football season

The Tennessee football program looks to be headed back on its way to competing with traditional SEC powers for championships, but a few things could change the 2015 season from breakthrough season to disappointment.

Here are the best, worst, and most likely outcomes from Butch Jones’s third season in Knoxville:

Best case

In order for the best-case scenario to occur, the Vols would have to have no major injuries, and have some good luck come their way, two things that have not happened in recent years.

A priority for the 2015 season will be keeping quarterback Josh Dobbs healthy.

If he does go down to injury at some point during the season (which has happened to Tennessee’s starting quarterback three out of the last four seasons), this fall could be another rough one for the Tennessee program.

From a schedule standpoint, even in the best-case scenario, Tennessee just doesn’t quite have the talent to go 12-0.

The Oct. 24 trip to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama looks like the most likely loss on the schedule.

Alabama is the only likely loss on the schedule though, and there are five likely/certain wins (Bowling Green, Western Carolina, Kentucky, North Texas, and Vanderbilt).

The rest of the schedule consists of six games that could either way (Oklahoma, Florida, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri).

The best-case scenario would have Tennessee winning all of these games, which would propel them into the SEC Championship game.

But winning all those games would be no easy feat.

It would include ending a ten-year losing streak to Florida, a five-year losing streak to Georgia, beating traditional powerhouse and nationally ranked Oklahoma, and going on the road to beat the back-to-back SEC East champion Missouri Tigers.

Tennessee could pull this off, but the Vols would have to have good luck as well as talent for the best-case scenario to occur.

Best-case scenario record: 11-1 (7-1 SEC), SEC East Champions, chance at making the College Football Playoff

Worst case

While it is very unlikely, Tennessee’s worst-case scenario for the 2015 season is only a couple of injuries and bad breaks away from being a reality.

If Dobbs, as well as players like running back Jalen Hurd, linebacker/defensive end Curt Maggitt, or linebacker Jalen Reeves-Maybin go down at some point during the season, the outlook on the season immediately changes.

While Jones has gathered the talent needed to win at a high level, depth is still a problem.

On the schedule, as mentioned above, there are five games (Bowling Green, Western Carolina, Kentucky, North Texas, and Vanderbilt) that the Vols will probably win even with some major injuries.

But while in the best-case scenario the Vols would win all of the toss-up games against Oklahoma, Florida, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, and Missouri, the worst case-scenario would see them only win one of these contests.

If somehow this scenario does occur, Jones probably would be given another year to turn the program around due to injuries that plagued the season, but would be on the hot seat heading into his fourth season.

Worst-case scenario record: 6-6 (3-5 SEC)

Most likely

The most likely outcome for the 2015 season falls in the middle of the best and worst-case scenarios.

Every football team will have to endure some injuries, and Tennessee is no different.

Tennessee will probably lose some valuable contributors, but not so many that they alone determine the outcome of the season.

Every football team also has breaks go for and against them; it’s very rare that everything lines up like it did in Tennessee’s 1998 National Championship season.

Tennessee experienced breaks going each way last season with things like the comeback at South Carolina and the missed delay of game call against Florida that allowed the Gators to kick a game winning field goal.

The toss-up games on Tennessee’s schedule won’t all go one way or the other either. The Vols will probably win three or four of those six games.

The 2015 season probably won’t be the year that Tennessee wins the SEC, or make the College Football Playoff, but it will set the stage for a big 2016 season.

Most likely record: 8-4 (4-4 SEC)

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